Net Zero Pathways Reducing Emissions and Enhancing Flexibility

The 2025 CIBSE IBPSA-England Technical Symposium gathered leading researchers, engineers and policy thinkers around one urgent question: how do we accelerate net-zero pathways while keeping our buildings resilient, affordable and grid-friendly? Three standout papers on DC microgrids, demand-side forecasting and real-world retrofit outcomes map complementary routes to lower emissions and greater flexibility. Together they reveal a consistent theme: optimise first, then electrify smarter. This blog unpacks each study, distils the practical lessons and shows how VEXO’s proven energy-saving technologies turn academic insight into measurable carbon and cost savings.

Net Zero Carbon Power: Why Buildings Need DC Microgrids – Adam Selvey et al. 

The paper argues that simply reducing kWh is no longer enough; the UK faces a looming “supply-and-demand crunch” as simultaneous electrification of heat, mobility and industry drives winter peaks beyond grid headroom. 

Selvey proposes “Net Zero Carbon Power,” a five-point strategy that replaces the 20th-century extract-store-consume model with local produce-store-consume DC microgrids. By shifting lighting, IT loads, battery storage and solar PV onto a 700 V DC bus, buildings can shave conversion losses, flatten peaks and even self-island during constraints  

The conclusion is blunt: waiting for decade-long grid reinforcements will delay 2035 decarbonisation targets; engineers must integrate DC-ready designs now  

Key Takeaways 
  • DC microgrids can halve conversion losses and unlock higher onsite-PV utilisation. 
  • Peak-demand smoothing is as critical as annual energy reduction for grid resilience. 
  • Hybrid AC/DC “starter” architectures let buildings phase upgrades without stranded assets  
  • Private investment in embedded generation reduces pressure on constrained DNO substations. 
Two stacked graphs showing office energy demand vs UK grid demand, highlighting the benefits of thermal and battery storage to reduce peak loads

VEXO’s S-BMS™ already speaks DC and AC: its open-API controllers aggregate HVAC data, giving facility teams granular power-quality dashboards that support the very peak-shifting Selvey describes. Meanwhile, X-POT® side stream filtration ensures low-temperature heat pumps circulate clean water, trimming pump electrical demand —vital when every watt counts in a microgrid. 

Forecasting Heat-Pump Demand for Grid Flexibility – Eleni Tsioumpri et al. 

Tsioumpri’s study tackles a growing operational headache: variable, weather-driven heat-pump loads. Using 243 days of 15-minute data from the UK BEIS Electrification of Heating Demonstration, the team clustered daily profiles with Gaussian Mixture Models and then predicted the next day’s cluster via a simple Markov Chain, achieving 51% accuracy, well above random baselines.  

Six characteristic load shapes captured 100% of observed behaviour, enabling day-ahead forecasts good enough to bid flexibility or schedule cheap, renewable-rich charging windows. Crucially, the method relies on readily available smart-meter data, avoiding the cost of dense sensor networks. 

Key Takeaways 
  • Six recurring patterns can adequately represent domestic heat-pump demand for forecasting. 
  • Probabilistic models beat deterministic rules when occupant behaviour adds noise. 
  • Asset-level forecasts enable aggregators to unlock price-responsive or carbon-responsive control. 
  • Scalable to whole energy communities where dozens of pumps act as a virtual thermal battery. 
Graphical dashboard with four energy demand forecasting charts showing predicted vs actual power usage with confidence intervals

Pairing forecasts with S-BMS zone-level actuation lets operators pre-warm spaces during low-carbon hours and glide through peaks, without comfort penalties. Better still, keeping hydronic circuits pristine with X-POT Live remote-monitoring guards the COP of each heat pump, so forecasted savings are realised in practice.

Dynamic Grid-Carbon Factors in a Social-Housing Retrofit – Juan Fernandez Goycoolea et al. 

This real-world case tracks a 1970s end-terrace in South Wales retrofitted with external insulation, an 8 kW air-source heat pump, 4.92 kWp PV and 9.5 kWh battery. One year of half-hourly monitoring shows energy imports plummeting 87%. However, reported CO₂ savings swing wildly between depending on whether static UK grid factors or dynamic National Energy System Operator (NESO) factors are used. 

Battery storage doubled emission cuts compared with PV alone, because it shifted self-consumption to high-carbon intensity periods. The authors warn that forthcoming net-zero standards must specify factor selection to avoid regional inequities and misleading payback estimates. 

Key Takeaways 
  • Whole-house retrofits can slash grid imports by >80 % when PV + batteries complement fabric measures. 
  • CO₂ reporting accuracy hinges on high-resolution, location-specific grid-carbon data. 
  • Batteries contribute ~31 % of total operational CO₂ savings — on par with rooftop PV. 
  • Standards that ignore time-of-use carbon risk under-valuing flexible electrical storage. 

Clean water equals clean heat: by installing X-POT® and dosing with X-PO® inhibitors, large housing development providers maintain heat-pump efficiency and protect expensive plate-heat exchangers — preserving the 87% import reduction for the system’s lifetime.  

Energy balance Sankey diagram showing imports, solar generation, battery use, and consumption; accompanied by a table with total measured energy and intensity data

How VEXO Helps 

The common thread across all three papers is optimisation before expansion — exactly the philosophy behind VEXO’s product suite. By combining hydronic health, smart controls and data analytics, VEXO regularly delivers portfolio-wide energy-intensity cuts of 15–30 %, accelerating payback on PV, batteries and electrified heating. Whether you’re master-planning DC-ready campuses, modelling heat-pump flexibility or scaling whole-house retrofits, VEXO’s integrated solutions convert theory into guaranteed energy and carbon savings. Share your design requirements or book a live demo today. 

VEXO product line-up including X-POT Side Stream Filtration unit, Y-MAG Magnetic Y-Type Strainer, S-BMS Smart Building Management System, and X-P035 non-flush cleanser

Sources: 

To access and download all the papers from the 2025 CIBSE IBPSA-England Technical Symposium head over to: https://www.cibse.org/knowledge-research/knowledge-resources/technical-symposium-papers/2025-technical-symposium-papers/

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